We had a governors' meeting at Longley Park Sixth Form College this evening.  Enrolments of new students at the college have remained stable from last year - which is an excellent outturn.  These will potentially be higher education entrants in 2013 or 2014.  So far the chanegs in the support package for students from low income households (the replacement of EMA etc.) do not seem to be having an effect - at least not at Longley Park.

But across the college sector as a whole the pictrue is rather gloomy.  Analysis of the national pictrue of recruitment this year shows significantly lower new enrolments, with a particular drop in the north-east.  Young people from more deprived backgrounds are far more likely, across the country as a whole, to be in sixth form colleges than 11-19 schools than is the case for those from more affluent backgrounds.  That is true in Sheffield, but it is also true nationally.  (There are, of course, certain exceptions, such as the Hills Road sixth form college in Cambridge.)  One hypothesised reason for the drop in college enrolments this year is the loss of EMA.  Many colleges have wide catchment areas with students needing to travel some distance, at considerable expense, to attend: the loss of financial support for travel may well be a key factor for many.  Longley Park has a strong local catchment and its pupils are not therefore affected by this issue.

But one other feature reported at our meeting was that students are being much more hesitant about applying for university entrance. There is more interest in apprenticeship schemes and students are looking keenly at cost and distance before committing to a university application. 

A couple of weeks ago the Vice-Chancellor had a series of meetings with head teachers and other senior school and college figures from across our region.  Afterwards three conculsions could be drawn:
1. Schools and colleges have no information or understanding about the changes in admissions numbers that will be handed down this very session - via the competition for AAB students and the competition extra places in institutions with low fee levels.
2. Middle class pupils in traditional 11-19 schools are being more strongly encouraged than ever before to aim high and to seek entry into the best universities.
3. Establishments with pupils from widening participation backgrounds are witnessing a diminution of interest in higher education more generally, and what interest exists is for less prestigious and lower cost alternatives.

As the Vice-Chancellor of a post-92 university said recently in my presence, we are about to see the undoing of 10 years of efforts in widening participation, and the rapid strengthening of an existing class divide between different types of university.