Wednesday 22 September 2010

Martin Williams this morning, at the Russell Group PVCs meeting, proved very interesting (see yesterday's blog) ... but unfortunately I can't say much about it because we govern ourselves via the Chatham House rule.  So in this case I can't say what he said, but it's quite easy to find a lot of it because he quoted extensively from David Willetts' speech to UUK on 9 September, a speech that it was clear he had a hand in writing.

For those who are interested see: http://www.bis.gov.uk/news/speeches/david-willetts-uuk-conference

Something that surprised me at the end of our PVCs meeting was that I found myself chosen by the others to be the new convenor of the group and therefore the chief link for Russell Group head office to issues and opinions about learning and teaching.  This could actually turn out to be quite a tricky task over the coming months. There is a complicated diary that we teased out this morning and which goes something like the following. It is worth noting that some of the scheduling does not happen in a logical order.  I am also putting in my own interpretation of how things may pan out.

Early October 2010.  Lord Browne reports on the work of his group and recommends a change in student fee and loan arrangements to take effect from October 2012, which will need parliamentary legislation to get through.
20 October 2010.  The Comprehensive Spending Review is published, cutting BIS's budget significantly.
21 October 2010. BIS announces a deep cut in the teaching funding allocation to universities, with the expectation that the cut will be made up, in aggregate (note those two words), by increased student contributions.  The cut is actually postponed until 2012-13 - but we should note that the CSR is intended to deliver its full range of cuts by fiscal year 2014-15, so the savings have to be delivered in three fiscal years rather than 4 if they had taken effect for 2011-12.  This postponement becomes known as 'Browne's bridge'.
March 2011.  Universities put the prospectuses for 2012 entry to press without any firm indications of what the student finance arrangements will be, since opposition to the Browne review recommendations is considerable.
Spring 2011.  The Bill to change student funding is rejected by Parliament.  (I won't go so far as to suggest that the coalition falls apart - but it is notable that in 2004 the then Labour government came closer to losing its majority over tuition fees than it did over the war in Iraq: student funding is an emotive issue).
Summer-Autumn 2011. The 2011-12 admissions round (for 2012 entry) starts without any agreed change to student financing, such that candidates have incomplete information on which to base decisions.
December 2011.  A watered down student funding proposal is passed by parliament, which results in a much lower reduction of the cost to government of fee and maintenance support.  Universities are enabled to declare increased fee levels, up to a cap.
February 2012.  The Treasury announces that the savings mapped out for BIS and the university sector on 20 October 2010 must still be made, even though there is no longer going to be a £1 for £1 rise in student contributons to offest the cut in government spending.  Ignoring the fact that the current admissions cycle is half way through, BIS therefore announces that the number of funded places available will be significantly cut for 2012 entry - part of the justification being that applications have been lower anyway (but that is the result of a lack of clarity about student funding, such that many potentrial applicants have held back from applying until late in the cycle).
August 2012.  The most chaotic admissions season of recent times.

I very much hope I'm wrong with this timetable.

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